Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite under-saturation onset

Chair: Samantha Siedlecki

Tristan P. Sasse(1), Ben I. McNeil(2), Richard J. Matear(3), Andrew Lenton(4)

1 University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
2 University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
3 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
4 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Background
Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem – from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution.Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations.

Methods
To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state for the global open-ocean (1°×1° resolution) utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite under-saturation onset.

Findings
Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long under-saturation by 17±10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35±16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale under-saturation once atmospheric CO 2 reaches 496ppm in the North Pacific and 511ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario.
Conclusions
This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.